AfCFTA: Can Africa’s Mega Trade Pact Shield It from Global Economic Shocks?

As global trade wars escalate and supply chains buckle under geopolitical pressure, Africa’s answer to economic volatility may lie not in foreign diplomacy—but in itself.

That’s the growing sentiment among economists like Yemi Kale, Chief Economist at Afreximbank, who says the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) could emerge as a lifeline amid mounting global uncertainty. Speaking to the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN), Kale called AfCFTA “a pivotal tool” for reshaping Africa’s future—and perhaps, its place in the global trade hierarchy.

A World in Flux—and Africa in the Crossfire

With the United States and China locked in an ongoing tariff battle, Africa finds itself caught in the turbulence. While the continent has long depended on trade with external powers, those relationships are now under stress.

“Trade diversion is a real risk,” Kale warned. “Exporters avoiding US tariffs could dump goods in Africa, squeezing local producers.”

That dynamic could flood African markets with cheap imports—particularly from Asia—undermining domestic industries and stalling the region’s fragile industrialization drive. Worse, investors may become more risk-averse, with frontier markets like Africa seen as too volatile.

“Instability breeds caution,” Kale said. “And Africa, still reliant on frontier capital, could face setbacks if investors pull back.”

AfCFTA: From Trade Pact to Transformation

In the face of these headwinds, AfCFTA is more than a trade agreement—it’s a bet on Africa’s collective strength. With intra-African trade currently at just 15%, the agreement seeks to unify the continent’s fragmented markets and reduce dependence on global heavyweights like China, the EU, and the US.

“The AfCFTA creates a unified platform, helping Africa weather global shocks through stronger regional cooperation,” Kale said.

His message is clear: deeper continental trade can serve as both an economic buffer and a catalyst for long-term resilience.

By fostering regional supply chains, standardising regulations, and reducing tariff barriers, AfCFTA has the potential to shift Africa from being a passive player in global trade to a more self-reliant bloc.

“This forces us to look inward,” he noted. “And trade more with ourselves—a proven path to faster development.”

A Test of Will, Not Just Policy

Still, AfCFTA is only as strong as the political will behind it. Implementation across 54 countries with varied infrastructure, regulations, and governance remains a complex challenge. The agreement has created a pathway—but it will take coordinated action, smart investment, and institutional trust to make it a reality.

The coming years will reveal whether Africa can turn this economic vision into execution—or whether global shocks will continue to dictate its trajectory.

But one thing is certain: in an era of fragmentation, integration may be Africa’s most powerful tool for survival—and success.