Dangote Refinery Slashes Nigeria’s Petrol Import Bill by 54% in Q1 2025

Nigeria’s petrol import bill witnessed a dramatic reduction in the first quarter of 2025, falling to ₦1.76 trillion from ₦3.81 trillion in the same period last year. This represents a 54 percent year-on-year decline and a 47 percent drop compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, according to recent figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The significant decline has been attributed largely to the operational capacity of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which began functioning at nearly full capacity in early 2025. The refinery’s contribution marks a critical turning point in Nigeria’s energy independence journey.

Refinery Operations Redefine Supply Chain

The Dangote Refinery, located in the Lekki Free Zone near Lagos, is now playing a central role in meeting Nigeria’s domestic petrol demand. With a refining capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, the facility is expected to produce up to 50 million litres of petrol daily. Its entry into full-scale operations has significantly eased Nigeria’s reliance on imported refined petroleum products, a challenge that has long strained the nation’s foreign reserves and exposed it to volatile global oil prices.

Fuel prices have also responded to the improved domestic supply. In Lagos, retail prices fell to as low as ₦860 per litre in the first quarter of 2025, a noticeable drop from previous highs. This trend, analysts say, could continue if local production remains consistent and distribution systems are further optimised.

Economic Impact and Trade Shifts

The impact of this local refining boom is being felt beyond pump prices. The fall in petrol import costs has helped relieve pressure on Nigeria’s trade balance and foreign exchange reserves. With fewer dollars needed to import fuel, the naira has faced less downward pressure, offering potential macroeconomic benefits in the long term.

According to trade data from the NBS, Nigeria’s imports from ECOWAS countries in the first quarter of 2025 included ₦89.18 billion worth of petrol, accounting for nearly 45 percent of total subregional imports. Other petroleum-related imports, including gas oil and bitumen, also featured prominently but were significantly lower in value. This trend underscores a shifting pattern in Nigeria’s trade portfolio as domestic refining gains momentum.

Policy Support and Future Prospects

The federal government has played a key role in supporting the operational success of the Dangote Refinery, from licensing to supply chain management. Authorities have also expressed plans to upgrade other local refineries, including the state-owned facilities in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna, which are currently undergoing assessments and phased rehabilitation.

Experts believe that if these facilities resume full operations and the Dangote Refinery continues its stable output, Nigeria could become a net exporter of refined products in the near future. Such a transformation would represent a major leap forward for Africa’s largest economy, reducing its exposure to external shocks and boosting job creation and industrialisation.

The first-quarter data signals more than a temporary dip in import figures. It highlights the early fruits of Nigeria’s long-term investment in refining infrastructure and sets the stage for a more self-reliant energy future. With the Dangote Refinery leading the charge, Nigeria is beginning to rewrite its energy narrative, shifting from dependence to dominance in the West African fuel market.