MTN Nigeria’s Stock Sees a Comeback—But Will Earnings Follow?

MTN Nigeria is seeing renewed optimism in the market—and it’s showing in its share activity. It’s  trading volumes on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) surged, reaching over 11 million units. the telco’s highest single-day volume on record. Investor sentiment has shifted, driven by hopes that MTN will post a profit in Q1 2025, reversing a long period of foreign exchange–driven losses.

With over 50% market share and a valuation of ₦5.1 trillion, its stock performance signals investor confidence in the broader tech and infrastructure landscape. Beyond mobile services, the company is also making strategic plays in broadband, rebranding its fibre-to-the-home service as FibreX to strengthen its presence in the home internet space.

Public Offer in View, But Risks Remain

Investor interest has also been stirred by MTN’s plans for a second public offering announced earlier this month. The offer aims to reduce MTN Group’s ownership from roughly 76% to 65%, increasing Nigerian participation in the company. However, the offer is contingent on MTN returning to profitability and resuming dividend payouts—two things still hanging in the balance.

Despite the optimism, MTN still faces real challenges. Inflation continues to erode consumer spending power, and millions of Nigerians are slipping deeper into poverty. The World Bank estimates nearly 47% of the population now lives below the poverty line—a sobering backdrop for any recovery narrative.

Still, market watchers remain cautiously hopeful. MTN closed out 2024 with a ₦114.5 billion profit in Q4, a sharp reversal from its ₦400.44 billion full-year loss. If the Q1 2025 numbers confirm a sustained rebound, it could mark the beginning of a new chapter for one of Nigeria’s most closely watched companies.