Oil Revenue Down: Nigeria’s Crude Oil Export Falls by 16% in Q1 2025

Nigeria’s crude oil exports dropped sharply to ₦12.96 trillion in the first quarter of 2025, marking a 16.34% decrease from the ₦15.49 trillion recorded in Q1 2024. This translates to a reduction of ₦2.53 trillion year-on-year. Despite the decline, crude oil remains the country’s top export, contributing 62.89% to Nigeria’s total export value of ₦20.6 trillion for the quarter.

Key Factors Leading to the Decline

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has attributed the fall in crude oil exports to a range of challenges. Firstly, some local refiners have struggled to obtain crude oil for processing, hampering local production and reducing available volumes for export. Secondly, the global oil market has remained volatile due to geopolitical tensions and shifting economic conditions among key oil-producing nations, which has negatively impacted Nigeria’s revenue. Additionally, persistent issues such as oil theft and pipeline vandalism continue to disrupt production and contribute significantly to the country’s export shortfall.

Growth in Non-Crude Oil Exports

In contrast, non-crude oil exports have demonstrated strong performance. Other oil-related products generated ₦4.48 trillion in Q1 2025, a substantial 134.24% increase from ₦1.91 trillion in the same quarter of the previous year. This growth reflects increasing diversification in Nigeria’s export portfolio and a degree of resilience in the broader oil sector. Despite the decline in crude exports, Nigeria posted a trade surplus of ₦5.17 trillion in Q1 2025, a 51.07% rise from the ₦3.42 trillion recorded in the previous quarter. The country’s total trade value for the period stood at ₦36.02 trillion, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.19%.

Major Buyers of Nigerian Crude

International demand for Nigerian crude remained strong, with major buyers including India, the Netherlands, France, Spain, and the United States. India led the pack with purchases amounting to ₦1.41 trillion, closely followed by the Netherlands at ₦1.36 trillion. Within the African continent, South Africa emerged as the leading buyer with crude purchases totalling ₦704.7 billion, while Côte d’Ivoire followed with ₦403.9 billion.

Petrol Imports Decline

The NBS report also revealed a significant decrease in petrol imports. Nigeria imported ₦1.76 trillion worth of petrol in Q1 2025, down from ₦3.81 trillion in Q1 2024. This 54% reduction is largely credited to the improved domestic supply provided by the Dangote Refinery, which has begun to reduce the country’s reliance on imported fuel. The sharp drop in crude oil exports highlights Nigeria’s continued dependence on the global oil market and its limited refining capacity at home. According to Veriv Africa’s 2025 Macroeconomic Outlook, the Nigerian economy is expected to face sluggish growth, with inflation anticipated to climb to 34.52% in 2025. Nevertheless, the expanded output from the Dangote Refinery offers a glimmer of hope, with potential to stabilise domestic petrol prices and improve economic stability.